Speculation is growing about the impact of the snapback of UN sanctions on Iran’s oil sector, with some analysts warning that Tehran could lose its biggest customer, China, because he doesn’t want to oppose the US. “The 25-year-old Iran-China treaty will not be fruitful as China prioritizes trade between the West and the US. It should be noted that China has $600 billion in trade with the US.
Oraee also pointed out that Russia, as Iran’s competitor in the global energy market, is unlikely to help both countries accelerate production to offset the inability to sell to Asian buyers such as India and China. In that case, Iran will gain more market share.
Bloomberg reported last week that Indian officials told Washington that a massive drop in Russian oil imports by South Asian countries’ refineries would require Washington to allow New Delhi to buy crude oil from Iran and Venezuela. Sources said India underscored that simultaneous cuts in oil supply to Indian refineries from all major oil producers, Russia, Iran and Venezuela, could lead to rising global prices.
Earlier this month, India’s Commerce Ministry confirmed it had imported $111 million worth of crude oil from Iran in June, marking its first such shipment since New Delhi halted its purchases under US pressure in 2018. Between January and July, India brought in $94 million worth of refined petroleum products from Iran. In total, Iran’s exports of crude and petroleum products to India reached $205 million in the first seven months of 2025, accounting for 54% of Iran’s national exports.
India consumes around 4.7 million barrels of crude oil every day, nearly 40% of which is recently supplied by cheap Russian oil. If India reduces imports, they could face a shortage of 2 million barrels to play in Iran and Venezuela. Both countries are under sanctions but offer sudden discounts and are well located to address this gap.
Hamid Hoseini, a spokesman for the Iranian Union of Iranian petroleum product exporters, told Mehr’s news agency that India is already in the mind of replacing Russian oil with Iranian oil. He said none of Iran’s exports to India were restricted by the UN resolution.
Technically, Iran’s heavy performance is one of the closest alternatives to Russia’s Urals blend. Both have similar API gravity and sulfur levels, so Iranian crude fits easily into Indian refineries designed for the Urals without costly modifications. Compatibility reduces downtime and operating costs, but Iran’s willingness to provide flexible payment mechanisms, including rupee-religious transactions and barter arrangements, further strengthens its appeal.
MNA/6607783