Tehran-Iran’s nuclear program conflict may seem complicated, but it’s actually quite simple. Washington argues that Iran should not develop nuclear weapons. Tehran says it is not planned and agrees to take steps to prove it in exchange for the termination of the sanctions. After that, the US begins to demand more. The negotiations collapse and the patterns repeat.
Ongoing nuclear negotiations between Iran and Washington could also begin like that, and follow the same path.
Iran agrees to enter nuclear negotiations with the US after President Donald Trump, who unraveled the original agreement in 2018, writes Ali Khamenei to the leader of the Islamic Revolution, then writes Ali Khamenei to the leader of the Islamic Revolution, and then tells him what he was willing to demand during his first semester in office, and agrees to Iran’s military and state contracts. The leader agreed to indirect consultations instead of direct consultations, and chose to act as an intermediary in place of the UAE, which Oman had preferred by Washington.
However, Ayatollah Khamenei said since the start of talks in early April, Iran has been serious about pursuing diplomacy, but has not relied on the US to stick to the same approach. “This is one of several projects that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is following. I am not too optimistic or pessimistic about it,” the leader explained.
It became clear why the leader had not relied on what he had heard from American officials at the time. They were talking to Iranians and refrained from raising the Iranian redline both publicly and privately. After four rounds of high-level debate, US officials now say they want Tehran to stop enriching uranium.
Ayatollah Khamenei reaffirmed Iran’s unwavering commitment to uranium enrichment on Tuesday, rejecting US demands to halt the process as “complete nonsense.” He said, “We are not waiting for anyone’s permission. There are certain policies in the Islamic Republic and we pursue them.”
The United States may have wanted other people in Iran’s political system to pressure their leaders to accept new concessions that the state had never agreed to, even when they signed the JCPOA in 2015. The Conservative Congress said the country would never “give up its right” to enrich uranium, and President Masuud Pezeschkian’s reformist government has pledged that enrichment will continue “with or without trade.”
With no other viable options, the US now appears to be trying to create uncertainty among the Iranian masses. To achieve this, it relies heavily on mainstream media and Western Persian channels to spread the message within Iran.
Citing an unknown source, CNN claimed on Wednesday that the US intelligence agency said “Israel is preparing to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.” It added that if the current debate between Tehran and Washington does not result in the dismantling of Iran’s enrichment capabilities, Israel will certainly proceed with its suspected plan. Reuters also reported alleged confusion among Iranian officials, citing an unknown source, claiming that senior leaders have no idea how they will respond if nuclear negotiations collapse and the US attacks Iran.
However, this new tactic may not be working either. When asked, ordinary Tehran citizens did not express any major concern about the possibility of an Israeli attack, nor did they believe that the collapse of consultations with the US would have a major impact on daily life.
“They already impose all possible sanctions. What more can they do?” mentioned a 32-year-old office worker who joined the workforce in 2018. When asked if he was worried about a potential strike at Iran’s nuclear facility, the young man in a grey suit said, “It’s not really true.” “They have been threatening us for years and if they could do that, they would have had it by now.”
In a recent interview with American media, former US defense secretary Robert Gates said he does not believe that Iran’s nuclear sites would be destroyed. The site has hardened and is placed deep beneath the ground. “We cannot reach a very deep buried part of Iran’s nuclear program,” he told CBS News.
Furthermore, attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities are sure to elicit a powerful and devastating response from the Iranian forces, which had already loaded missiles into their launchers in March.