TEHRAN – America’s new doctrine of containing the People’s Republic of China has gone beyond a trade conflict and entered the stage of a “global energy war.”
This multidimensional strategy is based on three key pillars:
1) Cut off Europe’s access to cheap Russian energy resources and make it dependent on US LNG
2) erode Russia’s war machine through sanctions and attacks on energy infrastructure;
3 (seeking to take control of strategic energy resources in Latin America (Venezuela) and the Middle East (Iran) in order to cut off key arteries of the Chinese economy.
Current conflicts, from Ukraine to the Middle East, are not isolated incidents but part of a larger puzzle aimed at ensuring American hegemony in the 21st century through control over global energy. Iran, as one of China’s major oil suppliers, is at the center of this new battleground.
1. Decline of globalization and rise of power blocs
The post-Cold War world order, based on economic globalization and cooperation, has increasingly been replaced by intense competition between great powers. At the center of this conflict is the conflict between the United States and China. This conflict evolved from a simple tariff war to a structural divide in the technological, financial, and military realms. China’s trade with the United States fell from 26% to 13%, bilateral investment halted and China reduced its holdings in U.S. debt from $1.4 trillion to about $760 billion, according to the data.
In response to this pressure, an “Eastern Axis” consisting of China, Russia, and Iran is forming, aiming to establish a multipolar order and challenge structures of Western domination, including the SWIFT system and dollar hegemony, through tools such as the digital renminbi. Within this framework, the United States realized that to contain China in the long term, it must target its main lifeline: energy.
2. The European stage: Planning a continental crisis
The first step in America’s energy war strategy was to cut off Europe, especially Germany, an industrial powerhouse, from cheap Russian energy resources. The Ukraine war was the catalyst for this goal. The effects of this collapse were devastating for the German economy.
• Production collapse: German steel production fell by 12% and car production fell by 2 million units compared to 2017.
• Unbearable energy prices: The Nord Stream pipeline explosion deprived Europe of cheap Russian gas and made Europe a major importer of expensive US LNG.
• New dependencies: Europe used to depend on Russia, but now it depends on the US for energy and China for supply chains.
. America is pursuing two objectives. First, weaken Europe’s industrial base to prevent it from becoming an independent competitor on a par with China. and second, to secure complete control of the continent as a strategic pawn in the confrontation with the Eastern Axis.
3. Russian front: War of attrition and energy strangulation
In parallel with its domination of Europe, the United States launched an all-out war of attrition against Russia, both militarily and economically. In the energy sector, the following actions are notable:
• Targeting refinery infrastructure: On October 20, two major refineries operating using Russian crude oil exploded: the Mitsui O.S.K. Danube refinery in Hungary and Petrotel in Romania. The move is reminiscent of the Allied strategy during World War II to bomb Romania’s Ploiesti oil field, which crippled Nazi Germany’s war machine by cutting off fuel supplies.
• Crippling sanctions: The US and UK have imposed sweeping sanctions on two of Russia’s oil giants to drain the financial lifeline of President Putin’s war machine.
• Attacks deep into Russian territory: By lifting its opposition to Ukraine’s use of Western weapons (such as Tomahawk missiles) in attacks inside Russia, Washington paved the way for damage to nearly a third of Russia’s refining capacity.
In the long term, these pressures could transform Russia from a major exporter of refined petroleum products to a potential importer of gasoline and diesel, at which point the transit routes through Iran and the Caucasus (Azerbaijan and Armenia) would become important.
4. Strategic turn towards Latin America: Venezuela strategy
US strategy faces major challenges. Disrupting global oil supplies to attack China, dramatically increasing prices and causing uncontrollable inflation in the United States. The solution to this dilemma lies in Venezuela.
By taking control of Venezuela’s vast heavy oil resources, the United States intends to mix it with its own light oil, thereby controlling (and if necessary cutting off) global oil supplies to China, while controlling domestic market prices. A statement from Colombian President Gustavo Petro confirms this analysis, stating that “a possible U.S. invasion of Venezuela is not under the pretext of a drug war, but to steal its oil.”
Controlling Venezuelan oil would allow the United States to maximize oil pressure on China without worrying about domestic inflation.
5. The final showdown: Iran and control of Middle East energy
Assuming success on the European and Latin American fronts, the last and most important piece of the puzzle for the United States is to stem the flow of energy from the Middle East to China. In this context, Iran plays an important role. Iran exports more than 1.5 million barrels of oil per day to China, serving as one of the country’s main economic lifelines.
Seen from this perspective, all US pressure on Iran, including the nuclear negotiations (JCPOA), no longer has an independent character, but rather functions as an instrument of a broader energy war against China. The ultimate goal is to completely stop Iranian oil exports to China. Therefore, without understanding this broader framework, any analysis that assumes the possibility of an agreement or dialogue with the United States will be incomplete and misleading. A full-scale “oil war” lies in the future of the region, and Iran must prepare for it.
6. Conclusion: Future prospects
The world stands on the brink of a major reorganization shaped by energy faults. The United States’ strategy to maintain hegemony is aggressive, high-risk, and encompasses all strategic regions of the globe. While this strategy achieved short-term success in asserting control over Europe, it also created unprecedented unity within the Eastern bloc: Russia, China, and Iran.
For Iran, this era is both a threat and an opportunity. The threat of direct confrontation in an energy war and the opportunity to play a key role in a new world order where control of energy resources and routes is paramount. Domestic developments in Iran, such as its insistence on implementing Financial Transparency Requirements (FATF), should not be seen as an alliance with the West, but rather as a necessary step toward integration into the Eastern economic bloc. After all, victory in this struggle will not come solely through military means, but through a deep understanding of historical trends, geopolitics, and political economy.