TEHRAN – The weather organization predicts that the remaining monthly rainfall will be lower than normal until early December.
The average summer rainfall is lower than usual in states north of Mount Alborz, south slopes and northwest. In some areas of the southeast, it tends to exceed normal. Other areas have low precipitation or no precipitation, Isna reported.
Summer precipitation is expected to close at 40% less than normal rainfall (September 22) in the current water year, as it contributes to a relatively small percentage of the total annual rainfall.
Fall rain is expected to begin later than usual. In the northwest, it is projected to be 60% less than usual, while in other parts it reduces precipitation by about 50-60%.
During the first two months of summer, temperatures will be normalized on the southeastern part of the country and on the Caspian coast. It is 1-2 degrees higher than normal in the northwest, and 0.5-1 degrees higher in other regions, respectively.
From September 6th to October 7th, average rainfall in most parts of the country is the same as normal long-term value. In the northwest, temperatures rise by 1-2 degrees. In other regions, it is 0.5 to 1 degree higher than usual.
From October 7th to November 6th, average rainfall is estimated to be lower than normal on both sides of the Alborz Mountains, the northwest, and the northern and southern Zagros provinces. There is no precipitation in other parts of the country.
Temperatures are 1-2 degrees higher in Zagros in the northwest, northwest, and central regions. In the eastern part of the country, the average temperature will be normal, but in other parts it is expected that the temperature rise will be above 0.5-1°C above normal.
From November 6th to December 6th, average rainfall tends to be lower than usual in North, Central and South Zagros east of Zagros.
The average temperatures are normal in parts of the East, Southeastern Dasht-e Kavir (Central Desert of Iran), usually 1-2 degrees above the Zagros and in the South, 0.5-1 degrees above the normal in the rest of the Zagros.
The biggest reduction in precipitation is expected to occur in the second month of autumn, especially during the mid-Zagros period.
Rain over 250mm in the previous water
The previous water years (September 22, 2023 – September 22, 2024) ended with a precipitation of 252.7 mm.
I was concerned that the precipitation at the beginning of the previous water year was low, but the precipitation improved over time.
Due to years of drought, some states are suffering from water shortages, as increased rainfall did not compensate for the country’s water shortages, the IRNA reported.
A total of 10 states have less rainfall than normal.
According to the latest report, the total recorded rainfall for the previous water fiscal year (ends September 23) was 252.7 mm. This means an increase of 19% compared to the 212.9 mm rain received in September 2022 – September 2023.
It shows a 2% increase compared to the long-term figure of 248.7 mm.
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