Tehran – Everything about Iran’s nuclear program has deteriorated over the past month and a half. However, given the global situation, especially the distinctive arrogance and useless attitude of the West in Western Asia, the worst may not yet be here.
A crucial moment came on May 31st. The Director-General of International Atomic Energy (IAEA) has issued a report reviving allegations that have been rebutted decades ago and previously rebuttal that accused Iran of failing to meet its nuclear commitments. Israel and the United States provided the pretext for launching attacks on Iran’s nuclear, military and civilian infrastructure on June 13th. After a 12-day war led to the deaths of more than 1,000 Iran, Iran officially halted cooperation with the IAEA, a technical and negative organisation that appears to have not condemned the attractive, unpopular attacks with Ian.
The attack also solidified a deep sense of distrust among Iranians about Western diplomacy. Despite becoming a reported assurance for Washington, while Iranians prepared for sixth round nuclear negotiations in Oman, the US betrayed Iran by allowing Israeli strikes and then taking part in the war itself. Hypocrisy has been exacerbated by European countries such as Britain, France and Germany. Signatories of the nuclear deal that the United States unilaterally abandoned in 2018 not only failed to condemn the attack, but also bravely supported the aggression. German Prime Minister Friedrich Merz explained the destruction and death that Israel was created in Iran as “dirty work” in the West was carried out by proxy.
Against this background, and in the promotion of the US, E3 is poised to take a final blow to diplomacy with a report showing its preparation to trigger a so-called “snapback” mechanism.
What is a snapback? Does Europe have a legal right to use it?
The 2015 Iranian nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), includes a “snapback” mechanism.
After withdrawing from the JCPOA in 2018 and subsequently reordering and strengthening sanctions, Washington lost its legal status to trigger the JCPOA snapback provisions. Of the remaining non-Iranian signatories in Germany, Britain, France, China and Russia, only European parties have shown willingness to use mechanisms against Iran. However, there are serious questions and concerns as to whether Berlin, Paris and London can still do so.
The JCPOA is constructed on the principle of interaction and provides the tool to put pressure on both Iran and other signatories. Before the attack, Iran had reduced compliance with some of its commitments as it did not support its own Western obligations. Iran signed the JCPOA to secure relief from the sanctions, but these sanctions were re-ordered following the withdrawal of the US. European states were unable to mitigate the impact of these sanctions and later implemented their own embargoes. As Iran’s reduction in compliance was permitted under section 26 of the transaction, it was possible to partially suspend the obligations when other parties failed to fulfill their obligations.
But even more importantly, the debate about compliance with Iran’s nuclear commitments and revitalizing snapbacks is now irrelevant. The US and Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities have destroyed the very site that the UN resolution aimed at regulating. Given the fact that US President Donald Trump has said that Iran’s nuclear site has been “deleted” these resolutions make it pointless, and Iran has confirmed that the facility is “severely damaged.”
Even if the world decides to play stupidly and agrees that the “snapback” mechanism could still apply to current inert Iranian nuclear sites, European troikas would still lack the right to call it. The JCPOA requires sincere efforts to resolve peaceful conflicts. By supporting illegal military operations that undermine Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, E3 failed to meet this requirement and thus confiscated its right to induce enforcement action on the transaction.
The day after the snapback is triggered
While Iran has not implemented accurate measures to potential recovery of UN sanctions by European powers, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Aragut said such a move would effectively end Germany, Britain and France’s involvement in Iran’s nuclear issue.
Meanwhile, experts have speculated about a variety of potential scenarios. There is an almost universal consensus that activating the “snapback” mechanism further undermines diplomacy. Many analysts believe Iran will withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and will be able to meet past threats from Iranian officials. The NPT will prevent additional states from acquiring nuclear weapons. Few believe that snapbacks will promote peace and stability in the region.