Madrid – John J. Meersheimer is undoubtedly the most influential voice in modern realist theory in international relations. A professor at the University of Chicago and an architect of the so-called “aggressive realism” theory, he argues that the international system lacks effective supranational authority – speaks to an inevitable brutal competition for power.
In his view, international politics is not an area governed by ideals or abstract norms, and not a chess board where strategic interests, security and survival determine the actions of state actors, and cannot do so.
This perspective has made him a controversial figure alongside his harsh self-criticism of US foreign policy, particularly due to his incisive doubts about Israel’s role in the region and Washington’s accomplices in the Palestinian tragedy. A recent interview with Tucker Carlson of Mearsheimer, along with recent public discussions, lectures and essays, repeats the still-lined wounds of West Asia, forcing the true causes and effects of regional geopolitics and unpleasant calculations.
Israel: Extensive strategy, power logic, and structural obstacles
For Mearsheimer, Israel’s strategy follows a ruthless logic. Maximize power at every cost and neutralize the threat to Tel Aviv’s regional control. His diagnosis shows that the Zionist project rests on four pillars: territorial expansion, systematic expulsion of Palestinians, aggressive destabilization of neighboring countries, and ensuring unlimited military, political and diplomatic support from the United States.
Since its inception, Israeli leader Mia Saimah has pursued a policy that combines uncompromising demands on loyalty from Washington with overwhelming military force. The military campaign in Gaza, as well as Lebanon and Syrian intervention, is in line with the broader goal of integrating Israeli power by dismantling all forms of organized resistance.
The recent attacks on Gaza, which Mearsheimer dully described as “genocide,” follow the longstanding premise that only mass violence, or the threat of extinction, can achieve a critical expulsion of Palestinians who continue to resist. According to realists, Israel never tried to kill all Palestinians, and rather never tried to make life unbearable enough to cause exile.
He says that the plan has always been carried out under American “protections” to block international condemnation and guarantee Israel’s immunity despite serious violations of international law. Therefore, in the words of Mia Saimaa, Washington abandoned its own national interests in favor of the “Israel First” foreign policy promoted by a powerful pro-Israel lobby.
Regional destabilization as a doctrine: Mirages in Syria, Iran and Kurdish
Mearsheimer’s analysis goes beyond Israeli and Palestinian binaries and explores the regional scope of Israeli strategy. He argues that a key element of this strategy was the systematic erosion of the integrity of neighboring nations, particularly Syria and Iran. Mearsheimer clearly states that Israel has not settled in a mere “change of government” in Tehran or Damascus. Its fundamental goal – long disguised by self-defense debate – was to promote the Vulcanization of rivals. It is to fragment Iran and Syria into competing entities that cannot challenge Israeli abbreviations.
Syria served as a lab for this approach. It’s an open, secret intervention that sows chaos and turns the country into a patchwork of war enclaves. In Iran, Tel Aviv’s obsession focuses on supporting separatist movements such as the “Kurdish Project” to undermine major regional actors and impose US influence directly or indirectly.
These plans are covered in language of self-defense and counterterrorism, but for Meersheimer, they embody a broader project of geopolitical redesign driven by hegemonic ambitions rather than by real survival needs. The paradox is clear. In pursuit of absolute security, Israel systematically sows its own seeds of anxiety by perpetuating unresolved conflicts in its direct environment.
Iran: Rational Actor, Strategic Resistance, Nuclear Dilemma
Western media usually portrays Iran as a source of instability and ambiguity, but Meershheimer’s pragmatic lens encourages a different reading. He argues Iran is in a state of being irrational or suicide, rather responsive to existential pressures with policies of deterrence and resistance.
Far from calling for the complete destruction of Israel, the Iranian government prioritizes survival, national sovereignty, and maintaining legitimate influence amid growing hostility. Tehran’s military response – focusing on targets, calculations and military goals – shows strategic refinement that, in the view of political scientists, opposes normal clichés. In fact, it is Iran that serves as an essential offset to Israel’s excess and prevents the region from falling under forced Pax-Swisrael.
Israel’s obsession with preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear capabilities at any cost — reflects its refusal to accept the regional balance of power, according to Mearsheimer. The US involvement in containment and sanctions strategies is only a more entrenched position. Today, the prospect of a “magnificent bargain” is farther than ever, and is the result of policies that reject both pragmatism and minimal coexistence.
The role of the United States: accomplice, impotence, moral collapse
Mearsheimer paints portraits of US policy in West Asia. His charges are dull. Snuggled by misguided conventions, pressured by pro-Israel lobbies, Washington abandoned its supposed role as a fair force, and instead became an aspiring accomplice in the tragedy of local development.
The United States acts as a military, financial and political guarantor of the Israeli agenda, but at enormous costs, it has lost its moral authority, discredited in the eyes of Muslim society, and constantly exposes its interest in soldiers, diplomats and themselves inflamed conflicts. Every attack on Gaza or Lebanon will lead to any act of sabotage against Iran deepening anti-American hostility and reducing Washington’s ability to interact.
At home, this consistency has created a stifling consensus in which objections are branded as betrayal and foreign policy is not shaped by national interests but rather a suffocating consensus that is subordinate to external agendas. The introduction of US policies by certain interest groups, particularly pro-Israel lobbies, has effectively mortgled American initiatives and undermined global status during periods of rising strategic rivals like China and Russia.
Results and outlook: Strategic collapse and Israel’s dead end
Diagnosis means there is no room for fantasy. According to Mearsheimer, Israel is now facing a dead end. All vectors of that strategy show deep, perhaps irreparable cracks. Military and moral fatigue in Gaza. He cannot defeat Hamas or contain Hezbollah. The risk of a long war with Iran. Even for a militarized regime like Israel, the outcome can be disastrous. An internal fracture that pushes Israeli society to the brink of a “civil war.”
Israel’s structural dependence on the US highlights the true vulnerability of the administration to resources, legitimacy, and diplomatic cover. Mearsheimer warns that without US support, Israel will have a hard time maintaining its project in the medium term.
In unconditional support for Israel, the double standards practiced by the West, particularly Europe and the US, have destroyed bridges with potential partners and undermined all prospects due to balanced and lasting dialogue. Costs are immeasurable in both human life and geopolitical legitimacy.
The need for self-criticism and the new approach
Mearsheimer’s analysis requires a fundamental reassessment of long-standing assumptions. The Israeli regime has now been drifting on expansionist, military and deeply destructive paths, threatening global stability. The United States shares responsibility for this trajectory through both action and omission, and the ongoing denial of actual conflict only brings the region closer to irreversible deep by.
To stop the escalation, it is urgent to recognize the political roots of the crisis and pave the way for negotiations where both Iran and Palestinians are treated as legitimate actors. Official statements and diplomatic silence are no longer sufficient. Only international pressure, journalist integrity, political courage will avoid catastrophe, and the wider world will pay the ultimate price of collective self-deception before and with it, before West Asia.