BEIRUT — In his first year as leader, Sheikh Naim Qasem has driven Hezbollah’s resurgence, refusing to give in to grief or crisis and instead launching a disciplined campaign to rebuild its military, moral and organizational strength.
At a time when hostile narratives tried to portray Hezbollah as a exhausted movement, he blended political orientation, ideological education, and spiritual renewal to turn adversity into opportunity.
In a recent speech marking his first year as leader, he outlined a clear vision, including firm preparedness for defense, rejection of pre-emptive war, and the essential need to maintain arms to maintain both dignity and survival.
This approach re-established internal cohesion and restored the true image of the Resistance to both supporters and opponents.
Between war and containment
Meanwhile, Lebanese public opinion remains gripped by one question: when will the war resume?
There is growing belief that Israel is preparing for a major conflict on the pretext of Lebanon’s inability to disarm the resistance. Tel Aviv has promoted this story internationally, claiming that Hezbollah is rearming and that recent assassinations and airstrikes are aimed at disrupting this process.
Israel continues to violate the ceasefire with Hezbollah agreed almost a year ago, and more civilians are being killed in Lebanon. On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that his administration would not seek approval for operations in Lebanon and Gaza, despite agreeing to ceasefires in both countries. Under the terms of the November 2024 ceasefire, Israel was to withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon by January 2025. However, troops remain in five border outposts that Israel considers strategic.
The tensions are clear, both politically and diplomatically. Israel Katz’s tour of the border with US envoy Morgan Ortagus, ahead of his trip to Beirut for the Mechanism meeting, underscored the growing anxiety.
Reports also surfaced that the Egyptian security delegation had warned that “the situation is extremely dangerous.”
Last week, a group of United Nations experts sounded the alarm over continued Israeli attacks in Lebanon. “These attacks have resulted in increased civilian casualties and destruction and damage to infrastructure, housing, the environment, and agricultural areas essential to civilian life,” they said. Israel launched a war against Lebanon last September, killing more than 4,000 people in Lebanon. This includes more than 100 people since the ceasefire took effect on November 27.
In this unstable situation, Sheikh Qasem stated his guiding doctrine precisely in an interview with Al Manar TV: War is still possible, but not inevitable!
The resistance is well prepared to defend Lebanon if attacked, but has not yet decided to launch a confrontation.
His message to the Zionists and their American allies was direct and unmistakable: “Do not try new wars. What could not be accomplished before will never be accomplished again.”
He appealed for respect for the ceasefire, which he described as serving mutual interests while preserving Lebanon’s sovereignty.
By supporting the ceasefire, Sheikh Qasem affirmed that it is the Lebanese state’s duty to respond to ceasefire violations by Israel.
However, he left open the possibility of a direct confrontation, saying it would “depend on developments on the ground.”
He asserted that the resistance’s weapons are legitimate and essential to countering Israel’s continued occupation and aggression.
“Israel doesn’t need a pretext to attack,” he said, pointing to Syria as evidence of expansionist intentions.
Changes in strategic principles
Describing the Resistance’s current military posture, Naim Qassem said: “From 2006 to 2023, deterrence depended on displays of excessive force. Today we do not display or assert excessive force. We operate as usual and have enough power to protect ourselves. Why display what we already have?”
His conclusion was careful and balanced, asserting, “We are ready to defend, but we are not going to start. There is no decision to start a fight, no decision to seek a fight.”
Israeli media quickly reacted. Kan TV aired a report titled “Towards a new confrontation?” While Hezbollah claims it refuses to disarm, Walla News claimed the resistance is “rebuilding its capabilities for the next war.”
Marib also cited security sources as warning that the country’s determination to remain in power “makes future operations inevitable,” calling the current calm an “illusion.”
Israel has weakened Hezbollah, giving the illusion that Hezbollah cannot defend itself from further aggression. However, the spirit of resistance remains alive in the movement, supported by growing popular support. A new war between Israel and Hezbollah could cause significant damage to Israel and have unforeseen consequences.
The right to bear arms as a necessity for defense
In this tense atmosphere, Sheikh Qassem’s first year stands out not only as a phase of continuity, but also as a phase of rebirth and restoration. His leadership represents a shift from crisis to resilience, a rebuilding of an organization that withstood losses and pressures but is more unified and firmly anchored in its ideology.
His appointment in February 2025 as the representative of Lebanon’s Islamic revolutionary leader Ayatollah Khamenei further increased his authority, giving his words religious legitimacy and strategic influence. This dual role allows him to balance deterrence and stability, military readiness and political restraint.
For a year under the leadership of Sheikh Qasem, Hezbollah has been experimenting with a balancing strategy. It is about maintaining deterrence without falling into costly conflict and maintaining readiness while promoting internal peace. His doctrine is based on three pillars: defensive preparedness, opposition to pre-emptive war, and the right to bear arms as a necessity for defense in the face of occupation.