Goa, India – Six months have passed since Venezuela’s national elections ended, but Western capitals continue to act as if vote-counting is still underway. Their criticisms, statements and carefully staged accusations are unabated. In fact, they are intensifying.
This persistence emphasizes that this debate was never about electoral processes, democratic procedures, and, of course, about Venezuelans exercising their constitutional rights. This fixation is geopolitical.
Western countries are reluctant to accept that Venezuela has conducted a peaceful election cycle, strengthened internal stability, and moved into a post-election phase that is significantly more peaceful and orderly than the chaotic drama predicted by Western media.
The question now being asked in diplomatic circles is, “Why are we discussing elections that are six months from now?” — exposes the emptiness of Western narratives. They insist on elections because they were never about democracy. It was always an excuse.
Long before a single Venezuelan stood in line to vote, think tanks in Washington, London and Brussels were drafting accusations. “Fraud,” “dictatorship,” and “illegality” were scripted in advance and ready to be unleashed at any time, regardless of what the Venezuelan people decided. In this story, Venezuela’s sovereignty is always provisional. It is only permissible if it is consistent with the strategic interests of the West. Any deviation from expected obedience is treated as a crisis.
The roots of this hostility go back 20 years. When Hugo Chávez regained control of PDVSA and redirected oil revenues to mass social programs, ending the era of foreign corporate control in the Orinoco Belt, he destroyed one of the Western Hemisphere’s most lucrative energy extraction systems.
This act alone made Venezuela the target of a multi-sided siege. Sanctions, financial blockades, asset freezes, seizure of CITGO, encouragement of attempted coups, diplomatic isolation—all these were tools of economic warfare waged openly, unapologetically, and often proudly.
President Trump clearly stated, “It’s all about oil.” Freed from the constraints of public office, John Bolton admitted in his memoir that President Trump repeatedly asked him why the U.S. wasn’t “getting Venezuelan oil.” Every once in a while, the mask slips to reveal the naked imperial logic beneath.
The sanctions, which UN Special Rapporteur Alena Douhan declared “catastrophic” and “indiscriminate”, have caused tens of billions of dollars in losses. Hospitals were struggling, with machinery corroded due to a lack of imported parts, power grids failing, and medicines disappearing.
And Western governments pointed to the crisis of their own making as evidence of government incompetence. This circular logic of strangling a country and blaming it for its gasps is a characteristic technique of modern coercive diplomacy.
European attitudes during this period were similarly cynical. The European Union, which maintains close and uncritical ties with authoritarian partners across the Middle East and Africa, suddenly discovered moral distress for Venezuelan democracy—conveniently at about the same time that Venezuela was rushing to replace Russian oil and gas in 2022.
Politico and the Financial Times both reported on internal EU discussions about sanctions relief and “re-engagement” with Caracas (a diplomatic euphemism for resuming energy cooperation). The principles remained strong even when Europe’s storage tanks were full. As winter approached and Russian supplies dried up, negotiations became possible.
This shift in Western attitudes stands in stark contrast to how Latin America itself understands the Venezuelan problem. The hemisphere of today is not the hemisphere of the early 2000s. Mexico has consistently advocated non-intervention and the inviolability of Venezuela’s sovereignty.
Brazil, under Lula da Silva, refuses to rubber-stamp Western accusations without independent verification. Colombia, under Gustavo Petro, recognizes that sanctions, not Venezuela’s rule, have created the largest migration flow in recent regional history.
The CARICOM countries maintain respectful and balanced relations with Caracas, based on geographical proximity, economic necessity and memory of Petrocaribe aid. The geopolitical consensus that once enabled US dominance in the region has evaporated.
Beyond Latin America, Venezuela’s global connections create a powerful deterrent. China continues to purchase Venezuelan oil, rebuild refineries, and restructure bilateral debt. Russia maintains strategic military and energy cooperation and sees Venezuela as part of broader efforts to counter Western domination.
The Iranian fuel shipment, carried through waters monitored by the U.S. Navy, was one of the boldest acts of Global South solidarity in recent memory. Türkiye has become an important commercial partner. India purchases Venezuelan crude oil through intermediary channels. These relationships form a strong web around Venezuela that the United States cannot easily penetrate.
This is where OPEC enters the story with new power. Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves and its production is increasing despite sanctions. Production rose from a low of about 400,000 barrels per day to about 780,000 barrels per day in 2023, and exceeded 1 million barrels per day by mid-2025, with exports frequently exceeding 900,000 barrels per day.
OPEC+’s impending shift to quota allocations tied in part to reserves (expected to take shape by 2027) means that a resurgent Venezuelan oil sector will become increasingly influential.
Western policymakers know that once Venezuela regains full productive capacity, it will not just recover economically. It would reshape global energy politics in a way that further weakens Western influence.
What Western analysts consistently underestimate is the internal cohesion that the Bolivarian project retains. Despite the difficulties, the ruling coalition still has a strong social base, especially among the working class, rural communities, and those who remember the oligarchic order of the pre-Bolivarian era.
The military, traumatized by the 2002 US-backed coup, is undergoing serious political consolidation and will not support any destabilizing attempts. Private militias formed as part of deterrence strategies add strategic depth that cannot be ignored by foreign military planners.
Opposition parties once touted as democratic alternatives have collapsed under the weight of alignment with foreign policies and an inability to present a national project.
This is why it’s been six months since the vote. Venezuela appears to be more stable than critics expected and much more stable than Western governments would like to admit. The streets are calm, political institutions function, regional cooperation is intact, and foreign investment from partners in Asia and the Middle East is growing. The Western narrative remains anchored in a past that Venezuelans have already left behind.
What remains is a deeper political issue. Do global South states have the right to determine their own political trajectories, control their own resources, and choose their own allies without punitive intervention? Venezuela said yes. This “yes” is not an ideological slogan.
It is a claim rooted in international law, the United Nations Charter’s claim to sovereign equality, and the lived experience of countries that have survived the most extensive sanctions regime ever imposed outside of war.
Western governments may cling to elections as a rhetorical weapon, repeating accusations that become less relevant. However, the geopolitical environment has changed. The unipolar moment that once allowed Washington to orchestrate regime change at will has passed.
Today, Venezuela operates in a world characterized by multipolarity, South-South cooperation, and the erosion of Western economic authority. Its strategy is not conflict for its own sake, but long-term principles of deterrence, diversification, and strategic patience.
It doesn’t really matter whether Western capital accepts this or not. Reality is already established. Venezuela will chart its own course. Gone are the days when others decided our fate.