TEHRAN – On December 8, 2024, Damascus fell, ending the long rule of the Baath Party, and Syria entered a new phase. Bashar al-Assad left for Russia, where he was granted asylum. For many Syrians, Assad’s departure was not a victory or defeat, but the beginning of new uncertainty. The vacuum left open the door for domestic and international forces to shape Syria’s trajectory.
Oath of Sharaa
In January, Ahmed al-Shallah, known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, a former leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), was appointed interim president. His name reflects his family’s roots in the Golan Heights, which was annexed by Israel after the 1967 war. On the first anniversary of Assad’s resignation, Shara appeared in military uniform at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus to offer dawn prayers. In his speech, he expressed confidence and determination, pledging to rebuild Syria “from north to south and east to west.” But the symbolism of a former militant commander leading prayers in Damascus underscored the contradictions of Syria’s new leadership, a man once ousted as a terrorist who now claims responsibility for national renewal.
human rights concerns
The United Nations Human Rights Office expressed concern about the slow pace of justice under the transitional authority. Reports over the past year include murders, arbitrary detention, sexual violence, destruction of homes, and restrictions on freedom. Minority communities such as Alawites, Druze, Christians, and Bedouins have been particularly affected, with tensions rising amid rising hate speech. The massacres in Alawite areas last March, in which UN investigators reported around 1,400 deaths, are a stark reminder of how fragile Syria’s social fabric has become. Analysts warn that unless the transitional government establishes reliable mechanisms of justice, sectarian wounds will deepen and create a breeding ground for new rebellions.
expansion of israel
Israel took advantage of Syria’s weakness to expand its occupation. After Assad’s fall, Israel declared the 1974 military disengagement agreement null and void, moved into a buffer zone, set up checkpoints, and detained Syrian nationals. While intensifying air strikes on Damascus and other areas, the area under its control has expanded by approximately 400 square kilometers. Last month’s Beit Zin attack, which killed 13 people, was condemned by Syria as a “full-scale war crime.” The Arab League described Israel’s actions as a “clear” violation of international law.
This expansion is no coincidence. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has introduced the concept of a “Greater Israel,” framing territorial control as both a historical mission and a security necessity. In his 2025 speech, Prime Minister Netanyahu declared: “The land of Israel is not just our present, it is our destiny. We will never give back the Golan Heights, nor will we renounce our right to hold on to the territory necessary for our security and protect our people.” Far-right ministers in the coalition government have made further advances. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said: “The dream of a Greater Israel is not a slogan, it is our obligation. Syria’s weakness is our opportunity to permanently secure our borders.” National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir agreed, saying: “The Withdrawal Agreement is dead. Israel must extend its sovereignty wherever security is needed, including in Syria.”
Such rhetoric, once dismissed as frivolous, is now shaping policy. Analysts say Israel’s moves in Syria reflect its long-term strategy in Palestine. In other words, the occupation is normalized through gradual expansion, backed by military superiority and justified by a security discourse. If Syria remains divided, Israel’s territorial advances may become irreversible.
Western double standards
The White House’s renaming of al-Shara, once a hunted al-Qaeda extremist who received a multimillion-dollar bounty from the United States, to the prestigious position of head of state exposes an extraordinary double standard in Western policy. Less than a year ago, he was wanted. He is now being hailed by world leaders, including Donald Trump, who praises him as “a man who gave hope to Syria.” Within weeks of taking power, senior American diplomats arrived in Damascus, bounties were abolished, and sanctions began to be eased. The Caesar Act, once Assad’s toughest measure against Syria, has been suspended and could be repealed.
Syrian leader Ahmed al-Shara (left) meets with US President Donald Trump at the White House in Washington, DC. November. Photo: AFP
This transformation is widely seen as a deliberate whitewashing of Jolani’s past. Western governments that once denounced him as a terrorist now treat him as a legitimate politician. The media also played a role in this rebranding. CNN described him as a “blazer-wearing revolutionary,” the Washington Post portrayed him as pragmatic and charismatic, and the Daily Telegraph even suggested he could build a Syria that respects minority rights. But critics warn that this is a dangerous illusion. Human rights groups such as Christian Solidarity International accused Western diplomats of “working at breakneck speed in Damascus to rehabilitate Syria’s new Sunni jihadist dictator,” even though he has been designated as a terrorist by both the US State Department and the UN Security Council.
Analysts say this is a textbook example of Western double standards. In other words, yesterday’s “terrorists” become today’s “partners” if they can bring stability, cooperate in intelligence operations, and work with Iran. As author Dan Kovarik bluntly stated, “The United States and NATO are passing off terrorist proxies as the new government.” The West’s efforts to erase Jolani’s record highlight a pattern of opportunism in which principles are sacrificed for geopolitical expediency.
extremist backlash
For militant hardliners, the West’s embrace of Shara’a is evidence of betrayal. They accuse him of selling out their religion and history. ISIL, also known as ISIS or Daesh, continues to tell Syria’s Sunnis on channels monitored by the BBC that al-Shara has betrayed them by claiming to have been an agent of the US and UK for years. These statements are aimed at destroying Sunni support for the transitional government and drawing militants back into the armed forces. Analysts warn that Israel stands to strategically benefit if sectarian violence flares up again. A collapsed Syria is unable to rebuild its army or contest Israeli positions in the Golan Heights. In such a scenario, Israel could continue its attacks, expand its ground presence, and normalize its occupation under the guise of security.
Syria’s uncertain future
Syria’s future remains highly uncertain. Schaller has gained international recognition through his outreach to the West, but legitimacy abroad does not guarantee stability at home. Minority communities remain vulnerable, sectarian wounds are raw, and hardliners seek to exploit discontent. Meanwhile, Israeli expansion and the ambitions of the far right threaten to redraw Syria’s borders in practice, if not in law. Analysts predict that unless Syria consolidates state power and addresses sectarian grievances, it risks becoming a permanent battleground for foreign causes. Next year may test whether the Shara’a regime can survive or whether Syria will remain caught between the West’s so-called pragmatism, Israeli expansionism, and a resurgence of armed groups.