TEHRAN – As Iran entered El Niño conditions, especially in the spring and summer, summer precipitation is expected to be low in the country’s southeast, but normal in the fall, Meteorological Agency Director General Ahad Wazifeh said.
Currently, the El Niño and La Niña stages are in a neutral state, and the difference in water temperature between the central and eastern Pacific Ocean surface and 200 meters below sea level is less than 0.5 degrees lower than the normal situation, which indicates a neutral state, it added.
However, based on simulation models, sea surface temperatures are predicted to rise by more than half a degree and enter the El Niño Southern Oscillation phase, ISNA quoted Wajife as saying.
This situation is not expected to have a significant impact on the summer, as the country’s summers are mostly dry. Precipitation will be lower than normal in the southern half of Sistan-Baluchestan province, east of Hormozgan and south of Kerman.
Autumn precipitation is expected to be near normal, unlike last year when there was a significant drop in precipitation due to El Niño.
The official mentioned the provinces with lower-than-normal rainfall, saying Alborz and Tehran provinces had lower-than-normal rainfall.
The average precipitation in Alborz province from September 2024 to April 2025 reached 219 mm. This year, the average rainfall in the state during the same period is 234 mm and the long-term rainfall is about 263 mm.
Since the start of the new water year starting in September 2025, the average rainfall in Qom, Markazi, Gilan and Mazandaran provinces until April 6 has been 27%, 30%, 24% and 20% less than normal, the official added.
Wajife had earlier predicted that temperatures in the north would be up to 1 degree warmer than normal in April. Temperatures are expected to be 3 to 6 degrees below normal in some areas of Hormozgan province. Temperatures in the south and east will be 1 to 3 degrees below normal. In other areas, temperatures will be near normal.
In the second week of April, rainfall in the Caspian Sea coast, northwestern Zagros and the northern half of central Zagros, parts of northern and southern Zagros, and other areas is expected to be near or above normal.
Precipitation from April 13th to 19th is expected to be near normal, and precipitation for the next two weeks (April 20th to May 3rd) is expected to be near normal or below normal.
From April 6 to 19, temperatures in the Persian Gulf are expected to be 3 to 6 degrees below normal. Temperatures will be 1 to 3 degrees below normal in the southern, eastern, southwestern, and western parts of the country. Everything else will be normal.
From April 20th to 26th, temperatures in the southern half of the country, northern and central Zagros will be between 1 and 6 degrees below normal. In the southwestern provinces of Khuzestan, Bushehr and Fars, temperatures will drop by 3 to 6 degrees.
From April 27th to May 3rd, temperatures will be near normal in most parts of the country. Temperatures will be 1 to 3 degrees below normal in Khuzestan, Bushehr, southern Fars, Kerman, Hormozgan, Sistan-Baluchestan, and eastern parts of the country.